Robots that act like humans are on the rise, and investors looking to bet on this trend have plenty of options to play with the growing technology over the next decade, according to Goldman Sachs. The company estimates that in 10 to 15 years, the market for humanoid robots could reach $6 billion and continue to grow from there. In addition, the industry could fill important parts of the labor market—it could account for 4% of the manufacturing labor shortage gap in the United States by 2030 and 2% of the global aged care worker shortage by 2035.” Product design, use case, technology, affordability and broad public acceptance have been completely overcome, we envision a market of US$154 billion by 2035E in a blue sky scenario (close to the global electric vehicle market and a third of the global smartphone market as of 2021), Suggesting that labor shortage issues such as manufacturing and elderly care can largely be resolved,” Jacqueline Doe wrote in a November 2 note. Robots Aren’t New to Work Humanoid robotics technologies aren’t new—many low-skilled repetitive tasks have been replaced by robots—but they are a continuation of current applications including industrial robots and autonomous vehicles with more complex integration, according to Du. Forecasts for growth in this sector suggest that humanoid robots could become a widely adopted peripheral device, after only smartphones and electric vehicles, according to Goldman Sachs. On its last day to investors, Tesla showed off its humanoid Optimus robot, and said it had a goal to ship millions of units in the next five to 10 years. It also wants to make robots cost less than a car. That gives some clues about the future of human-like robots, which will likely find their first applications in factories and could be especially valuable if they are able to operate for up to eight hours a day — previous models were only able to run once or two hours straight. . Of course, before such machines can take over the work that humans currently do, there must be advances in technology and costs must come down “to be competitive with a two-year minimum wage for workers,” according to the memo. This may be soon on the horizon. “Assuming the technological level has been reached and cost reductions in electric vehicle manufacturing are indicated historically, our assessment suggests that factory applications could be economically viable in 2025E-28E and consumer applications in 2030E-2035E,” Du said, adding that the urgent need for labor supply gaps It can outweigh refund considerations from customers. Where investment opportunities lie, the company has compiled a list of stocks in its coverage universe that could benefit from the trend toward adopting humanoid robots across a few different areas. Goldman’s coverage includes companies from China, Japan, Europe and the United States and is not limited to stocks rated buy. Currently, Goldman Sachs sees the most obvious investment opportunity in this phase of the movement, according to the note. This is because there is a more mature supply chain than today’s industrial robot and automation applications. There is also a long path to potential growth. “In the blue sky scenario, we see a range of 21% to 463% in incremental revenue by 2030E versus actual revenue for 2021 from the current core equity business (Leaderdrive/HDS/Hiwin/THK/Sanhua), while in the base case we see 2 %-35%,” Doe wrote. The company does not recommend any US-based names in this category. Sensors can also take advantage of and take advantage of technology from existing supply chains for the advanced driver assistance system. The company said investors could buy shares such as Aptiv PLC and Magna International to achieve this growth. “The four basic types of sensors used in ADAS include camera, radar, ultrasound, and lidar. Each sensor has its own advantages and limitations, which is why both humanoid robots and ADAS will use a combination of them, known as the sensor array,” he said. du. There is more opportunity in the cross between sensors used in electric and self-driving vehicles and what could be used in humanoid robots. “What is unique about the humanoid robotics sensor module is the gyroscope/inertial measurement unit (IMU), to keep the robot in balance,” Du said. Low-grade IMUs are usually found in vehicles, while high-end units can sense movement in 3D spaces and use in space. This could include companies like Raytheon Technologies and Honeywell. Software versus hardware Of course, some of the opportunities Goldman Sachs sees will take some time. And it’s not immediately clear whether the space winners will be on the hardware side making the robots or the software side, developing the computer systems that power them. “We believe that it remains unclear in the future whether hardware or software will become the most important aspect of humanoid robotics,” Du said, adding that cost constraints will force players to find the right balance between the two. “Previous start-ups failed to reach the mass market because they could not reduce costs,” she said. “Future attempts at humanoid robotics will need to determine if they can reduce the use of hardware components and allow software to take the analytical role.”
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